Pat Hill DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- More soybean, corn and cotton acres this spring, fewer wheat and sorghum acres -- that's the essence of what farmers told USDA about their planting intentions this spring, USDA reported early Wednesday.
 
USDA released its 2010 Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports early Wednesday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)
USDA's estimates for corn, soybean and wheat acres all fell within trade expectations, with corn and soybean acres slightly below the average trade guess and wheat acres above the average pre-report guess. The report should be viewed as neutral to bullish for corn and beans and neutral to bearish for wheat, said DTN Analyst John Sanow.

Here are the headline numbers: Corn acreage is expected at 88.8 million acres, up 2.32 ma from a year ago; soybean acreage is expected to total 78.1 million acres, up 0.65 ma; cotton acreage is seen at 10.51 ma, up 1.37 ma, and all wheat acres are expected to fall 5.3 ma, to 53.83 million acres.
In a separate report, USDA indicated a buildup in March 1 corn and wheat stocks compared to a year ago, while soybean stocks for the same period declined.
Both corn and soybean stocks were larger than many pre-report expectations, so those numbers could be seen as neutral to bearish at the start of the day's trade.

ACREAGE
In USDA's Prospective Plantings report, USDA said corn acreage is expected to increase by 3 percent from last year. "Expected acreage is up in many states due to reduced winter wheat acreage and expectations of improved net returns," the report stated. Acreage increases of 300,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Ohio. The largest decreases are expected in Iowa, down 200,000 acres, and Texas, down 150,000 acres.
Soybean acreage is up less than 1 percent from last year, and if realized, will be the largest on record. The largest increases are expected in Iowa and Kansas, up 300,000 and 400,000 acres, respectively, while Illinois, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota each show increases of 100,000 acres or more. Planted area is expected to decline or remain the same across the Delta and Southeast, with decreases of more than 100,000 acres expected in Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee.

All wheat planted area is down 9 percent from 2009. Winter wheat planted area is now estimated at 37.7 million acres, 13 percent below last year, but up 2 percent from the previous estimate in January. By class, 28.3 million acres are hard red winter, 6.0 million acres are soft red winder, 3.4 million acres are white winter wheat.

Other spring wheat acreage is estimated at 13.91 million acres, up 5 percent from a year ago. Durum planted area is estimated at 2.22 million acres, down 13 percent from last year.

All cotton acreage is expected to total 10.5 million acres, up 15 percent from last year, with the largest acreage increases in Texas.
"Ho-hum is the best way to describe USDA's Prospective Plantings report," Sanow said. "Since these numbers fell within expectations, traders are likely to quickly look past this report and spend their time concentrating on weather, developments in South America and outside markets."

QUARTERLY STOCKS
In a separate report, USDA said corn stocks as of March 1, 2010, totaled 7.694 billion bushels, up from 6.954 billion bushels a year ago and down from 10.934 b bu on Dec. 1, 2009. Ahead of the report, private estimates had ranged from 7.318 to 7.758 b bu.
"This puts into question whether feed and/or ethanol demand is as strong as advertised," Sanow said.
March 1 soybean stocks totaled 1.270 billion bushels, down from 1.302 bb a year ago, and down from 2.337 b bu on Dec. 1, 2009, and at the top of trade guesses.

March 1 wheat stocks were 1.352 billion bushels, well above the 1.040 b bu reported a year ago, and down from 1.765 b bu on Dec. 1, 2009. Pre-report estimates for wheat stocks averaged 1.364 b bu.

"The Quarterly Stocks report should be considered neutral to bearish for corn and beans and neutral for wheat," Sanow said.

Pat Hill can be reached at pat.hill@telventdtn.com

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