Northern Ag Network
posted on September 27, 2012 09:55 :: 488 Views
by Darin Newsom, DTN Senior Analyst
OMAHA (DTN) -- The only surprise lurking in USDA's latest quarterly stocks report would be new-crop bushels "mistakenly" added, similar to what was seen in 2010. Other than that, there is little expected to move the needle.
USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday.
Corn: The line is still open on how many hundred million bushels will "accidentally" be added into corn's quarterly stocks number, a situation made more likely by the earlier-than-normal harvest seen in August. The high side of pre-report estimates is 1.261 billion bushels, 80 million bushels more than the September ending stocks projection for 2011-2012. This seems a little on the light side given that almost 10% of the crop was reportedly harvested by the end of August. If realized, the average quarterly stocks projection of 1.126 bb would represent only 8.3% of total supplies and quarterly demand of 15% of total supplies. The former is the second smallest since 1995-1996, trailing only the 2011 estimate of 8.0%. The latter is the smallest Q4 demand percentage since 14.4% estimated in 1995-1996.
Soybeans: Quarterly stocks of soybeans are expected to come in at 132 mb, up 2 mb from the September USDA supply and demand report. Given the pace of export demand over the last quarter, this should be close to what USDA announces Friday. If realized, the 132 mb would represent 4.0% of estimated total supplies of 3.287 bb, the smallest percent on record. Quarterly demand would be 16.3% of total supplies, the largest since the 1998-1999 marketing year of 17.05.
Wheat: The average pre-report estimate came in at 2.281 bb, indicating first-quarter demand of 27.4% of 2012-2013 total supplies of 3.141 bb (September supply and demand estimate). If realized, this is behind the five-year first-quarter usage average of 30.0% and the 15-year average of 29.3%. This would be considered slightly bearish given all the projections of increased demand for U.S. supplies due to a tight world supply situation.
Grain Sorghum: Fourth-quarter stocks of grain sorghum are expected to come in at 21 mb, below USDA's September projection of 27 mb. This could be viewed as bullish given it is the tightest Q4 stocks number of 18 mb estimated at the end of the 1995-1996 marketing year.
SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY
Once again, this report is expected to be a non-event, with only minor adjustments made from the August crop production report seen in average pre-report estimates. All-wheat production is expected to increase by 2 mb, with all winter wheat production down 6 mb from August while spring wheat production is expected to increase 7 mb from the previous estimate. This would be viewed as largely neutral.
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