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Market Commentary from the Northern Ag Network: 5/19/2018 3:00 PM
July Chicago wheat closed down 11 cents and July Kansas City wheat was down 12 1/4 cents at $5.26 1/2, taking back part of Friday's gains while wheat reports around the globe remain mostly favorable. Europe and southern Russia are expecting beneficial rains this week while dry conditions in Australia remain a concern. Here in the U.S., the winter wheat crop has received some benefit from recent rains, but the forecast remains mostly dry for the U.S. southwestern Plains. After watching wheat prices climb higher through most of 2018, Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials a little bullish in Chicago wheat with 22,644 net-longs as of May 15 -- a rare event that has not worked out well the past five times. Fundamentally, it remains difficult for the U.S. to compete with plentiful supplies of global wheat. Technically, the trends remain higher for the July contracts of both, Chicago and K.C. wheat. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.87 Friday, down from its highest price in 10 months and 31 cents below the July contract. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.99, near its highest price in over two years.
July corn ended up a quarter-cent Monday at $4.02 3/4, helped by bullish influence from soybeans and another seven-day forecast of mostly dry weather for Brazil. Corn crops in southern Brazil did receive beneficial showers over the weekend, but more will be needed, and so far, the forecast is looking dry again. A smaller corn crop from Brazil will help U.S. exports and the pace is gradually improving. Here in the U.S., rain is falling around the Great Lakes, which should be mostly beneficial. Monday morning, USDA said 60.2 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, bringing total inspections to down 13% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Given May's more favorable planting weather, Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report is apt to show corn planting ahead of its five-year average. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still bullish in corn with 394,310 net longs as of May 15. With fundamental support from crop concerns in Brazil, the trends remain up in both July corn and new-crop corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.68 Friday, still near its highest price in 23 months and priced 27 cents below the July contract. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar is quiet, trading up 0.08 and near its highest prices in 2018. Outside commodities are mostly higher.
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