Billings, MT – A proposed $85 billion merger between Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern is raising questions in Montana about how it could affect agriculture and shipping.
On the Voices of Montana talk show, guest host Steve Arveschoug spoke with Dr. Hal Singer, director of the Utah Project at the University of Utah, and Montana wheat farmer Lochiel Edwards. Both highlighted possible risks for shippers, producers and consumers if the two rail giants are allowed to combine.
Singer, an economist who studies antitrust and consolidation, said the rail industry has already consolidated dramatically—from 39 Class I railroads in 1980 to just seven today. Four companies now control about 90 percent of the nation’s rail revenue.
“History tells us that when industries consolidate, we often see higher prices and reduced service,” Singer explained. “There may be claims of efficiency, but those same efficiencies could often be achieved through contracts without eliminating a competitor.”
Edwards, a third-generation farmer near Big Sandy and co-founder of the Ag Rail Business Council, said Montana producers are especially sensitive to rail changes.
“Mergers are fraught with disruption,” Edwards said. “Even if the impacts aren’t directly on BNSF here in Montana, they will ripple through the system. My biggest concern is what I call extractive railroading—cutting investment and service to deliver more to shareholders. If UP takes that route, BNSF may be forced to compete with the same tactics.”
The Surface Transportation Board (STB) will review the merger, with a formal application expected in early 2026. The board has recently updated its merger guidelines, which could bring closer scrutiny. Public comments and hearings are likely before a final decision is reached.
Edwards said Montana consumers would feel the effects much like the rest of the nation. “Most of what we buy is shipped in. If shipping costs rise, so do prices on the shelf,” he noted.
Singer added that service quality is as much a concern as rates. “For Montana agriculture, timely and reliable rail service is what makes markets. That’s on the line here, too.”
While President Trump has voiced early support for the deal, both Edwards and Singer agreed there will be pushback from agriculture, labor and other industries before any approval is finalized.
Edwards encouraged farmers to reach out to engage their farm organizations as a means of reaching the federal delegation.
Colter Brown, Northern Ag Network
