Changes in Wheat Volume in July WASDE

WASHINGTON (DTN) — A big crop got a little bigger, as USDA increased U.S. corn production for the new-crop (2018-19) season to 14.2 billion bushels and increased new-crop soybean production to 4.3 billion bushels.

The agency also incorporated the new Chinese soybean import duties into their estimates, which drove exports down 250 million bushels, and boosted domestic soybean ending stocks to 580 million bushels, up from 385 million bushels in June.

USDA also boosted global soybean ending stocks for both new crop and old crop substantially.

These numbers were released by USDA in its July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports.

Thursday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn, bearish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bullish for corn and wheat, but bearish for soybeans, he said.

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

Today marks the final day that DTN and other news outlets will have pre-release access to these reports, which allows for the publication of these report numbers and analysis at 11 a.m. CT. Starting Aug. 1, news outlets, like the public, will have access to these reports once they are posted on USDA's website at 11 a.m. CT.

WHEAT

USDA expects the 2018-19 wheat crop to reach 1.88 billion bushels. Winter wheat production was pegged at 1.193 billion bushels, a tiny drop from the July estimate, but down 6{4c92fa2179cbca4bed3bb0c6c6ce267033d9d158a5f4060fb03bde3d74c11c2b} from 2017. The average winter wheat yield is expected to reach 48 bpa, down 0.4 bushel from June and down 2.2 bushels from last year.

Spring wheat production was estimated at 614 million bushels, up a whopping 48{4c92fa2179cbca4bed3bb0c6c6ce267033d9d158a5f4060fb03bde3d74c11c2b} from last year. Durum wheat production was forecast at 75 million bushels, up 36{4c92fa2179cbca4bed3bb0c6c6ce267033d9d158a5f4060fb03bde3d74c11c2b} from last year.

The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $4.50.

SOYBEANS

USDA boosted soybean average yield to 48.5 bpa.

Old-crop U.S. ending stocks were moved to 465 million bushels and new-crop ending stocks swelled to 580 million bushels.

The average U.S. farmgate price for soybeans was lowered to $8.00.

New-crop global soybean ending stocks jumped to 98.3 million metric tons, a huge increase from June. Old-crop soybean global ending stocks also rose substantially to 96 million metric tons. Both numbers were well above pre-report expectations.

CORN

USDA left average corn yield untouched at 174 bushels per acre (bpa).

New-crop U.S. ending stocks for corn were 1.552 billion bushels and old-crop ending stocks were 2.027 billion bushels.

The average U.S. farmgate price for corn was dropped to $3.30.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Thursday, July 12, as he looks at the latest USDA Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit https://dtn.webex.com/…

(AG)

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