Grain Markets Explode Higher Friday Morning


WASHINGTON (DTN) — Going against market expectations, USDA's quarterly stock numbers dropped old-crop corn stocks to 988 million bushels, pegging it at just 7.3{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} of total supply from the 2011-12 crop, the lowest percentage of quarterly corn stocks since 2004.

Friday's USDA reports could be considered bullish for corn and wheat and bearish for beans, said DTN Analyst John Sanow.

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Corn: The corn stocks on Sept. 1 were 988 million bushels, which fell below the average pre-report expectation of 1.126 billion bushels. Market analysts had expected some new-crop harvest to factor into the report and boost the stocks but that wasn't the case. The old-crop stocks were down 12{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from last year's totals.

Of the total stocks, farmers were still sitting on 314 million bushels on their farms. Off-farm stocks included 675 million bushels, down 17{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from stocks a year ago.

USDA estimated disappearance of the old-corn crop from June to August at 2.16 billion bushels, which is down from the same period a year ago.

Soybeans: Old-crop soybeans came in at 169 million bushels, which was above market expectations of 132 million bushels. Still, old-crop soybeans were 21{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} lower than a year ago. The 169 million bushels represents 5.1{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} of total supplies from the 2011-12 crop. Disappearance from June to August was 498 million bushels, up 23{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from a year ago.

Wheat: All wheat stored on Sept. 1 came in at 2.1 billion bushels, below the market expectation of 2.281 billion bushels. At 2.1 billion bushels, wheat stocks are down 2{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from a year ago. On-farm storage accounted for 573 million bushels, down 9{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011. Off-farm stocks are up 1{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from last year at 1.53 billion bushels. USDA pegged disappearance at 908 million bushels, up 27{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011.

Grain Sorghum: Old-crop sorghum was 22.9 million bushels, slightly higher than the pre-report estimate. USDA's figure was down 16{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011. Off-farm stocks were 21.8 million bushels, down 14{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011. On-farm storage was 1.16 million bushels, down 43{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from last year.

“The large drop in quarterly stocks for corn and wheat below the average guesses has contracts rallying sharply Friday morning,” Sanow said. “Corn came in 138 mb and wheat 181 mb below the pre-report estimates. Beans are struggling to keep up as fourth-quarter stocks came in 37 mb above expectations. This seems counterintuitive given the robust export pace through the old-crop marketing year.”


All wheat production was 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, up 13{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011. Grain area totaled 49 million acres, up 7{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from the previous year. The U.S. yield is 46.3 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels per acre from 2011.

Oat production is estimated at 64 million bushels, up 19{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011. Yield is estimated at 61.3 bushels an acre, up 4.2 bushels from 2011. Area harvested was 1.05 million acres, the second-smallest acreage on record.

Barley production is estimated at 220 million bushels, up 41{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011. The average yield was 67.9 bushels an acre, down 1.7 bushels from 2011. Barley was more popular to grow this year with acreage harvested at 3.24 million, up 45{6b02cb02835b82b7f756ddf6717aaab7139b350de274ea97f5b53eb230607107} from 2011.

“The small grains summary should be considered neutral, as all-wheat production came in very near pre-report estimates — 2.269 bb against the average guess of 2.27 bb,” Sanow said.

Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp

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