Row crop markets ratcheted moderately higher through the first full trading week of 2026, on much higher volume compared to the Holiday weeks, as was expected to be the case. Trade was subdued on Friday, which was not surprising to see with a flurry of USDA data due out on Monday morning, which will set the tone for the first quarter of 2026 and shed light on what to expect for crop prices.
WHEAT:
March Kansas City wheat futures were unchanged on Friday, closing at $5.30 1/4. Chicago futures were lower, as were Minneapolis futures. While the weekly rally in KC futures hit at least a temporary speed bump on Thursday, it was reassuring on Friday to see early attempts to break prices back below the 100-day moving average ($5.27 1/4) for March futures thwarted. $5.33 1/4 is the bullish closing price target for the March KC board.
For the time being, the weather risk in wheat futures may have taken prices as high as short-term technicals will allow, with a significant bullish breakout from here likely requiring more concrete evidence of a production threat beyond loss of winter hardiness. That being said, the situation does remain risky for U.S. winter wheat, especially if temperatures should turn suddenly cold. For now, as of this week, conditions across the central and southern Plains were lower than in November for hard red winter wheat, but still overall in decent shape, with Kansas, for example, rated 60% good to excellent to begin the year.
Monday’s report could very well show yet another increase in world wheat production and overall supply to start 2026, with estimated ending stocks for the world (not including China) already estimated at an eight-year high in December. This will continue to be the counterargument to price rallies in wheat futures. However, the above weather situation, combined with what is expected to be a historically low total winter wheat area in the U.S. for 2026, may provide some spark to the market, which remains towards the bottom end of the historical price distribution when accounting for inflation.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Thursday at $4.60, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.55. Friday’s futures close and Thursday’s national average basis of 70 cents under the March board for HRW, and 16 cents under the March board for HRS, would indicate the Indices for Friday afternoon to be near $4.60 and $5.52, respectively.
Corn
March corn futures closed a 1/4 cent lower on Friday at $4.45 3/4. May futures were down 1/4 cent as well to $4.53 3/4. The corn market remained choppy to close the week, unable to extend the weekly rally beyond Thursday’s early high of $4.48 on the March board. Meanwhile, early tests of support at the 50-day moving average for March futures near $4.44 1/2 were successfully held. Overall, the March board sits almost directly in the middle of the average price range seen post-harvest, with $4.40 to $4.50 proving to be a difficult area to break out of in either direction. Traders will surely be looking for guidance in Monday’s USDA reports.
Corn market news was slim to close the week, with Monday’s USDA reports the next big event for the market. Traders are expecting to see a reduction in the 2025 national corn yield, with an average trade estimate just below 184 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 186 bpa in November if true. Bullish traders may also look for an increase in export demand given the 30% year over year commitments increase, but USDA may wait to see what the typical peak for shipments in the March to May window looks like before further revisions higher. Expectations are that the 2025-26 ending stocks estimate will fall below 2 billion bushels (bb), which would still be the highest in six years, which will likely work to keep bullish price expectations somewhat grounded.
In Thursday’s report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the 2025-26 corn crop in Argentina is just under 90% planted. In the weekly report, the agency did note that recent dryness has taken some toll on crops, with the national condition dropping to 75% good to excellent compared to 82% last week. On a national level, about a third of the crop is tasseling. Good soil moisture levels have propped up conditions through the dry spell, but moisture levels are starting to taper through the past couple of weeks. The next week is expected to have higher precipitation chances for northern Argentina, but coverage for southern growing areas looks to be scattered until the following week, which features higher chances. Many are expecting to see USDA’s forecast for Argentina’s corn crop move higher on Monday into record territory.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Thursday at $4.10. Friday’s futures close and Thursday’s national average corn basis of 36 cents under the March board would indicate the Index on Friday afternoon to be near $4.09.
