After a sluggish open on Sunday evening and overnight session to begin the new week, row-crop futures caught a bullish spark as the day trade began but eventually saw bullish momentum fade through the session on a lack of rally-sustaining news for Monday.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures fell after a very strong three day rally to close last week. For Monday, May Kansas City futures were down 12 1/4 cents to $5.72 1/4. Chicago futures were lower as well. Profit-taking was not surprising to see to begin the week with last week’s rally sending March KC futures beyond the June 2025 high to the highest price for front-month futures since March of 2025. March futures are also challenging the 200-day moving average ($5.62) for the first time since June, retesting the mark for support to begin this week.
Wheat export inspections for the week ended Feb. 19 were decent at 19.7 mb, up from the previous week as well as the comparable week in 2025. Year-to-date inspections total 670.3 mb and are up 19% from the same point in 2025. Fundamental backing for the recent wheat rally is still lacking, with multi-year highs for wheat reserves both in the U.S. and world markets. However, new-crop conditions aren’t necessarily ideal in the U.S. with plenty of drought to speak of but also plenty of time to reverse course through spring. Regardless, noncommercial traders have raced through the past few weeks to cover what was viewed as an increasingly risky net-short position in wheat futures amid geopolitical tensions both in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Friday at $5.05, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.72. Monday’s futures close and Friday’s national average soybean basis of 80 cents under the May board for HRW, and 28 cents under the May board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Monday afternoon to be near $4.92 and $5.69, respectively.
Corn
March corn futures were unchanged on Monday at $4.27 1/2. May futures were up 1/2 cent to $4.40 1/4. March corn futures bounced from overnight lows, but were also unable to sustain among daily highs, with there still being an overall lack of impactful market news in February, with demand well known to be record strong but comfortable supply levels regardless. From a technical standpoint, March futures remain held under the 20-day moving average ($4.28 3/4) but simultaneously support at $4.25 continues to hold.
Corn export inspections for the week ended Feb. 19 were very good at 78.9 million bushels (mb), well above the previous week as well as the same week in 2025. Year-to-date inspections total 1.486 billion bushels (bb), and are up 46% from February 2025, gaining 2 points through the most recent week. In feed news, Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed a similar story to past reports with cattle inventories in large feedlots down 2% from February 2025 at 11.5 million head.
In world corn news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in their delayed crop update last week that corn conditions did improve with recent rainfall, up to 51% good to excellent from 42% the previous week. According to the agency, roughly 87% of the national corn crop has tasseled, and 24% has been harvested. Precipitation through the next week looks to turn to the lighter side but the last two weeks may have improved soil moisture enough to sustain crops through pollination. In Brazil, 66% of the safrinha crop is planted in Mato Grosso as of last week according to IMEA.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Friday at $3.95. Monday’s futures close and Friday’s national average corn basis of 32 cents under the March board would indicate the index on Monday afternoon to be near $3.95.
