Despite it being Friday the 13th, good fortune came to ag markets to close the week. The wheat market rallied after bullish reports from USDA that projected higher exports, lower ending stocks and lower wheat production than was expected. The EPA at long last rolled out their proposed renewable volume obligations (RVO) after months of speculation and rumors which had created quite the roller coaster out of the soybean oil market. The proposed blending and RIN requirements for 2026 and 2027 came in above the industry recommendations from earlier in 2025.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures also enjoyed a strong session to close the week with July Kansas City futures closing 18 cents higher at $5.40 3/4. Chicago and MIAX Minneapolis futures were also higher for the day. Wheat futures joined in on the bullish psychological strength across grain markets Friday, while also building momentum off modestly bullish revisions by USDA to world wheat fundamentals in Thursday’s WASDE.
In addition to lower wheat stocks across the globe Thursday, the weekly Drought Monitor also showed a slight uptick in wheat area affected by drought. Specifically, Montana and Idaho featured increases, with the former having implications for both winter wheat and spring wheat crops. Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see in Friday afternoon’s Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC where speculators are now positioned. Last week’s data showed the combined net-short across the three wheat boards at just over 172,000 with prices having been mixed since.
In wheat technicals, Friday’s bullish engulfing candle reclaimed losses from Tuesday through Thursday for the July Kansas City contract. The 50-day moving average at $5.38 3/4 is again the immediate bullish target. The last close above this mark on June 6 was immediately rejected on Monday of this week. Immediate support is seen at $5.33 1/2, the 20-day moving average.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Thursday at $4.63, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.98. Friday’s futures close and the implied basis of 60 cents under the July for HRW, and 23 cents under the July for HRS, would indicate the indices for Friday afternoon to be near $4.81 and $6.12, respectively.
CORN:
July corn futures traded 6 cents higher Friday to $4.44 1/2. New-crop December futures were up 2 1/2 cents to $4.43. It was a rather muted session for the market, especially when compared to the price action observed in soybean and wheat markets. The ethanol industry, while certainly a pivotal part of the Renewable Fuel Standard, has really cemented its place in the mix year in and year out and thus is somewhat insulated from headline shocks. Otherwise, traders currently seem stuck between another round of supportive revisions from USDA on Thursday and general nervousness regarding the ideal growing weather across the U.S. Corn Belt thus far.
Thursday’s Drought Monitor showed another weekly decline in drought conditions across U.S. corn growing areas. Down from 21% last week to 18% as of June 10. There are still some concerning areas, Nebraska in particular stands out as home to the majority of persistent drought conditions, with 86% of the state still in some form of drought as of June 10. The immediate 2- to 5-day outlook shows decent rainfall across the Western Corn Belt, before forecasts shift back to a Central and Eastern focus in the 6- to 10-day forecast.
In South America, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported corn harvest in Argentina to be 47% complete as of midweek. The agency has maintained a production estimate of 49 million metric tons (mmt), just below the USDA estimate of 50 mmt. In Brazil, corn harvest continues to advance. Conab estimated total corn production for 2025 at 128.3 mmt in their June crop report on Thursday, slightly lower than the 130 mmt estimate USDA maintained in the June WASDE Thursday.
For corn technicals, it was overall a decent week for corn prices which finished 15 1/4 cents off the Tuesday low which briefly dipped below $4.30. The 20-day moving average near $4.46 stands as a bullish opportunity if prices can gain support there. July futures have traded higher now in seven out of the past ten sessions as buyers may be gathering momentum amid 2025 lows for old-crop prices.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Thursday at $4.16. Friday’s futures close and implied corn basis of 22 cents under the July board would indicate the index on Friday afternoon to be near $4.22 to close the week.
