Thursday’s session was centered around the April release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA. The report, as expected, generally featured few changes and was more or less neutral to corn and soybeans, but slightly more bearish than had been expected in regard to wheat.
WHEAT:
May Kansas City futures fell 4 3/4 cents on Thursday, closing at $5.90 1/2. Chicago and Minneapolis futures were also lower. Wheat futures were pressured by an improved rainfall outlook through the middle of April in the U.S., but primarily by larger than expected increases to both U.S. and world wheat stocks in Thursday’s WASDE. In a positive note, May KC futures held above the 50-day moving average ($5.87 1/4) in what was the first test of the level in two months. Bullish traders will be targeting a move back above $6.00, with the 20-day moving average near $6.15.
Wheat export sales for the week ended April 2 were 6 mb, an improvement over the previous week but still lower than the previous month’s average. Shipments totaled 13.6 mb and brought total commitments to 892 mb, just 8 mb below USDA’s 900 mb goal with 2 months left in the marketing year. In Thursday’s WASDE, USDA left their export forecast for wheat unchanged, with the only demand revision being a 1 mb cut to seed usage. However, wheat imports were forecasted at a 5 mb increase, resulting in a 7 mb increase to ending stocks to 938 mb, still the largest in six years.
In world wheat news, the USDA again increased global production, adding to Europe, Russia, and Argentina’s production totals for 2025-26. The largest change, however, was a 4.81 mmt decrease to domestic usage in India, pushing their stocks number 28% higher as compared to March, with world wheat stocks (excluding China) jumping from 152.11 mmt to 158.28 mmt, now the largest on record.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Wednesday at $5.22, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.89. Thursday’s futures close and Wednesday’s national average soybean basis of 73 cents under the May board for HRW, and 35 cents under the May board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Thursday afternoon to be near $5.18 and $5.83, respectively.
Corn
May corn futures closed at $4.44 on Thursday, down 3 1/4 cents. July futures were down 3 cents to $4.55. The corn market fell for a third straight session, pressured by what remains a seven-year high forecast for U.S. ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels (bb) in Thursday’s WASDE. May futures made an early attempt to move back above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages ($4.48 3/4) but was rejected. From a technical standpoint, corn futures are becoming oversold in the short-term and bulls will attempt to reclaim support just above Thursday’s close.
USDA released their weekly export sales report on Thursday morning, with corn sales for the week ended April 2 landing at 53.6 million bushels (mb), a four-week high. Shipments of 72 mb were slightly lower than the previous week but ahead of the last month’s average. In total, corn commitments jumped to 2.81 billion bushels (bb), up 30% from the same point and only 48 mb below the total 2024-25 export program with five months remaining in the marketing year. In Thursday’s WASDE, USDA made no changes to the 2025-26 balance sheet, leaving exports unchanged at 3.3 bb and subsequently ending stocks remain a seven-year high at 2.127 bb.
In world corn news, on Wednesday the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina moved their production forecast higher to a staggering 67 million metric ton (mmt) crop. Far and away a record for Argentina if true. This clashes with USDA’s forecast on Thursday which was unchanged from March at 52 mmt. USDA also left their Brazilian production estimate unchanged at 132 mmt, likely wanting to see how crucial pollination weather plays out through the balance of April and early May. World ending stocks were slightly higher than expected at 294.81 mmt, though that is still the lowest in 11 years if true.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Wednesday at $4.09. Thursday’s futures close and Wednesday’s national average corn basis of 38 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Thursday afternoon to be near $4.06.
