As expected for Thanksgiving week, grain and oilseed markets have been very quiet and more or less directionless thus far, struggling to gain breakout momentum in either direction with many traders likely on the sidelines and taking an extended holiday break from the action. The trade, albeit thin, does exhibit the characteristic of at least a short-term bottom in accordance to technical guidelines.
WHEAT:
March Kansas City wheat futures closed up 5 3/4 cents on Tuesday to $5.28 1/4. May KC futures were up 5 1/2 cents to $5.39 1/2. Winter wheat futures were able to trade higher on Tuesday, regaining Monday’s losses in the process as March KC futures have reestablished support just above $5.20, which had been a level supportive to December futures in early November when that contract was the most actively traded. The upside target for the March board will be the 100-day moving average, currently near $5.38 1/2 but dropping, which has held prices in a long-term lower pattern for most of 2025.
Monday’s Crop Progress showed winter wheat plantings reached 97% complete as of Sunday, even with both last year as well as the 5-year average pace for late November. Meanwhile, 87% of the crop has emerged and is in overall decent condition with 48% of the crop rated good to excellent. This was an improvement of 3 points from last week’s reading, while it is 7 points behind the same period in 2024, with 5% more of the crop rated poor to very poor as well.
Tuesday’s delayed export sales report showed wheat commitments were 25% ahead of the same point in 2024 as of Oct. 9, not surprising to see considering inspections as of Nov. 20 were running 20% ahead of 2024. When USDA returns on Dec. 9 with the next set of wheat balance sheet estimates, traders will undoubtedly be looking for a revision higher to the 900 mb estimate from the November and September reports.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Monday at $4.40, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.51. Tuesday’s futures close and implied basis of 82 cents under the March board for HRW, and 25 cents under the March board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Tuesday afternoon to be near $4.46 and $5.56, respectively.
Corn
December corn futures fell 1/4 of a cent on Tuesday, closing at $4.23 1/2. March futures were up 1 1/2 cents to $4.38 1/4. Corn futures once again held close to the 50-day moving average ($4.25 1/4) on December futures although it is a bit frustrating from a technical perspective to see the level reject breakout attempts in both Monday’s and Tuesday’s sessions. Meanwhile, looking at the March contract, which will likely become the most actively traded later this week, support can still be seen at the 100-day moving average near $4.35 3/4.
USDA released the export sales report from the second week of October on Tuesday morning, sticking with the plan for two per week until caught up in early January. That report showed export commitment pace was 55% ahead of 2024 as of Oct. 9, which isn’t surprising given the stout inspections pace released on Monday of 72% ahead of 2024 as of Nov. 20.
USDA released the final Crop Progress report of 2025 on Monday afternoon, reported corn harvest was 96% complete across the U.S. as of Nov. 23, just a point behind the normal, 5-year average pace for late November. Impressive progress was made in Nebraska, which jumped 18 percentage points from last week to over 90% complete, although still a touch behind the 5-year average completion percentage of 98%. In terms of production still to be harvested, assuming USDA’s 90 million harvested acres estimate, 96% would mean 3.6 million acres are left unharvested to begin this week, and the national average yield estimate of 186 bushels per acre (bpa) would imply roughly 670 million bushels (mb) of production still to go.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Monday at $3.89. Tuesday’s futures close and implied national average corn basis of 48 cents under the December board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $3.89.
