Row-crop markets fell sharply Friday, led by accelerated selling in the soybean complex after a series of escalations regarding trade between the U.S. and China. It began on Thursday with reports that China was planning further export restrictions on rare-earth minerals which have been a primary point of contention between the two nations through negotiations this year. It was then reported early Friday that China would respond to planned U.S. port fees with fees of their own on U.S. ships beginning Oct. 14. The final straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back on Friday was a social media post from President Trump expressing frustration with China, but perhaps most concerning to the market was the comment that the highly anticipated summit between he and President Xi of China may no longer take place. The development was a bearish aspect across almost all markets for Friday, with energy and equity markets falling drastically.
WHEAT:
December Kansas City futures fell 6 3/4 cents on Friday to $4.83. Chicago and Minneapolis futures were also lower to close the week. All three wheat contracts fell to new contract lows on Friday, an all too common experience as of late for the wheat market. It is difficult at this point to gauge support points moving forward with KC futures at their lowest level for the most active contract since September of 2020, but $4.70-$4.75 were supportive levels that month, beyond that the August low was below $4.50 which would seem to me to be extremely overdone from a bearish perspective especially accounting for inflation to a current price equivalent but it appears necessary for context to point out this is the historical price ranges that the current wheat market is threatening once again.
The wheat market for Friday was more or less tied to the bearish price action across the entire ag sector, with little wheat specific news to trade. I still believe the bearish wheat reports which coincided with the onset of the government shutdown are still causing price repercussions with little to no U.S. specific news to shift the markets focus. In world news for Friday, private Black Sea analytics firm SovEcon once again raised their estimate for 2025 Russian wheat production to 87.8 million metric tons (mmt), an estimate that has grown steadily through the year and now sits 2.8 mmt above the most recent USDA estimate. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the 2025 wheat crop is rated over 96% normal to excellent (fair to excellent). 30% of the crop is flowering as of this week, with the agency noting some instances of excess moisture as something to monitor for disease and pest pressure but yield expectations overall for the crop remain very high, adding to the comfortable supply line for wheat over the immediate future.
Corn
December corn futures fell 5 1/4 cents on Friday to finish the week at $4.13. March futures were down 5 cents to $4.29. It was a bearish technical session for corn futures as December prices dropped back below support at the 50-day moving average near $4.15. This will set up an important open to next week’s trade to recover support at this level or risk the market falling further on harvest pressure back toward the next round of support near $4.00 to $4.05.
Although the corn market is somewhat insulated to the ongoing trade war with China in the sense that China is not an active buyer of U.S. corn — yet corn exports stand at record levels nonetheless — the double-digit price plunge in the soybean market for Friday was a source of bearishness that was simply impossible for the corn market to shrug off. Moreso, the simultaneous drop in crude oil futures to the lowest since early May amid the ceasefire in Gaza, as well as the China-U.S. shipping fee standoff, added to the pressure to corn prices due to ethanol interests.
The stellar demand profile for U.S. corn stands as the compelling bullish argument within the market, and with the lack of weekly export sales reports to reassure market bulls, corn futures may continue to face instances of being “along for the ride” with soybean futures. The market will of course continue to keep an ear open to yield reports as U.S. harvest hits full swing in October, but given the added stocks found in the Sept. 30 report, it is still difficult to imagine a stocks situation much less than 2 billion bushels (bb).
In world corn news for Friday, Argentina’s corn plantings advanced to 26% complete this week according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This is well ahead of the normal rate of planting for the “early” planting cycle in the country. Reminder that corn planting in Argentina is done in two stages, through September and October in the central areas, then November is skipped to focus on wheat harvest and soybean plantings before corn plantings in the south and north resume in December. It will be interesting to monitor the percentage of planned acreage which is ultimately planted before the break, which will give an idea of the portion of the crop to monitor during pollination in December.
