DTN reports:
July KC wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents at $6.40 1/2, its highest close in 2024 as all three U.S. wheat prices continue to show concerns about recent threats of adverse weather. December corn was up 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans ended up a penny after trading over a dime lower earlier in the session.
WHEAT:
July KC wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents at $$6.40 1/2, a sixth consecutive day higher and the highest close in 2024. Rain is falling in eastern Kansas Thursday, but there are also chances for severe weather with the rain. We should know more by Friday, but the southwestern Plains may not get much out of the developing storms, at least on the drier, western side of the Plains. As dry as Kansas is, overall conditions are much better than a year ago. Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed 17% of Kansas with drought ratings of D2 or higher versus 71% at this time a year ago. The next five days of rain over much of the central U.S. should be mostly favorable to SRW wheat areas and northern HRW wheat areas, but may be problematic in eastern SRW wheat areas where fields are already wet. Spring wheat areas in the northern U.S. Plains and western Canada may see some light showers, but have better chances for rain next week.
USDA said 3.0 mb of old-crop wheat and 13.7 mb of new-crop wheat were sold for export last week, light amounts helped by new-crop sales to the Philippines. 21.1 mb of wheat were shipped last week, more than the weekly amount needed to reach USDA’s low export estimate of 710 mb. With six weeks left in the 2023-24 season and including Census Bureau data, wheat needs 4 mb of old-crop sales and 99 mb of shipments to reach USDA’s export goal by May 31.
Outside of North America, wheat fields in western Europe are expected to remain excessively wet next week, but at least warmer temperatures are on the way and Spain is benefiting from the rain. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia remain dry with chances for limited rain amounts next week. This is obviously an important, price-sensitive wheat region and Ukrainian ports continue to deal with Russian attacks.
After several months of wheat prices under bearish pressure, the price trends are now up for the July contracts of KC and Chicago wheat and sideways for July Minneapolis wheat. DTN’s National HRW index closed at $5.76 Wednesday, the highest close in over two months. DTN’s National HRS index closed at $6.55.
CORN:
December corn ended up 3 1/2 cents at $4.76 1/4 Thursday, staying in its same sideways trading range of the past six weeks, while also staying below resistance at $4.81. It is a little curious traders don’t seem to have much concern about Brazil’s safrinha corn crop entering the dry season and facing above-normal temperatures, but that could change at any time. Late Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 20% of Argentina’s corn crop was harvested and 60% of it was rated fair to excellent. The exchange’s corn production estimate stayed at 49.5 mmt or 1.95 bb.
Here in the U.S., rain in the western Plains and chances for severe weather in the southwestern Plains are expected to kick off a round of moderate to heavy rains that will cover most of the Corn Belt by Monday and keep planters parked after a busy few days to start the week. Next week’s rain chances lean toward the Northern Plains, but if there is good news for planting it is that temperatures have already warmed up for most of the Corn Belt and will stay above-normal the next two weeks.
On the demand side of corn, USDA said 51.2 million bushels (mb) of old-crop corn and 10.3 mb of new-crop were sold for export last week, boosted by significant old-crop purchases from Mexico, South Korea, and Japan — traditional U.S. buyers. Last week 67.3 mb of corn were shipped, putting total shipments at 1.253 billion bushels (bb) in 2023-24, up 34% from this time a year ago and a good performance, considering this winter’s limitations at the Panama Canal. As long as corn sales keep coming, there is a chance corn could exceed its 2.100 bb estimate in 2023-24.
With planting about to pick up in the U.S., December corn remains in a sideways trend. DTN’s National Corn Index was priced at $4.22 Wednesday evening, 16 cents below the May futures. In related news, the U.S. Commerce Department said U.S. GDP was up 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024 and up 3.0% from a year ago, less than economists expected, reported RTTNews.com. Dow Jones futures are trading down roughly 1% Thursday afternoon.
