December corn closed down 5 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 21 1/2 cents, pressured by the anticipation of harvest and bearish market influence from liquidity problems in China. December soybean oil posted the largest percentage loss among grain-related contracts, finishing down 1.39 cent at its lowest close in three months.
December KC wheat closed down 13 cents at $7.00, quickly giving back part of last week’s 30 1/2-cent gain with bearish influence coming from outside markets. China’s potential problem with the real estate firm Evergrande is not a direct threat to wheat prices; but investors tend to fire first and aim later. Scattered showers in the eastern Midwest on Monday’s weather map are helpful for SRW winter wheat planting conditions and South Dakota received light rains earlier Monday, beneficial for HRW wheat planting. The Pacific Northwest received light to moderate rain amounts near the coast over the weekend, but much more is needed over a broader area to help white wheat growers have a successful planting period this fall. As far as 2021 crops go, both the U.S. and Canada are headed into winter with lower supplies and that should help wheat prices stay well supported the next several months. On the demand side, USDA said 20.7 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, a decent amount of movement for a second consecutive week. HRW wheat was the most popular, accounting for 43% of last week’s shipments. Outside of North America, the seven-day forecast is mostly dry for Argentina and eastern Australia could use more rain. Like last year, southern Russia is dry again for winter wheat planting. Friday’s CFTC data showed noncommercial net longs in KC wheat were trimmed to 32,248 as of Sept. 14, a modest position that appears to be well supported by this year’s lower supplies and higher prices. Technically, the trend is sideways for December Chicago wheat and is up for the December contracts of KC and Minneapolis wheat. DTN’s National HRW Index closed at $6.95 Friday, not far from its highest price in seven years. DTN’s National HRS Index closed at $8.89, near its highest price nine years.
December corn ended down 5 1/2 cents at $5.21 3/4 Monday, pressured by harvest progress over the weekend and bearish influence from stocks and commodities in general, related to concerns about defaults on debt payments by one of China’s top real estate firms, Evergrande. According to BBC and CNBC.com, the company holds over $300 billion of debt and missed an interest payment Monday with more deadlines coming later this week. In addition, China made a show of force, sending military aircraft into Taiwan’s air space over the weekend. Investor concerns were evident in Monday’s markets and followed a mostly dry weekend that saw rains develop early Monday in the northwestern Plains and Eastern Corn Belt. The Western Corn Belt is expected to be generally dry the rest of the week, while the Eastern Corn Belt gets another two days of rain, enough to interrupt harvest with heavier amounts in Indiana and Ohio. Late-season concerns about tar spot, rust and weak stalks are adding some extra interest to a corn harvest that is estimated near 15.0 billion bushels (bb). Friday’s CFTC data showed noncommercial net longs in corn fell to 258,634 as of Sept. 14, the smallest holding in nearly a year and an encouraging sign that corn is finding good commercial support. The ability to move grain to the Gulf is still impaired from Hurricane Ida damage, but USDA’s weekly report of export inspections showed modest improvement for corn at 15.9 million bushels (mb) versus 5.4 mb the previous week. According to Dow Jones and the private firm, AgRural, 22% of Brazil’s next corn crop has been planted, helped by rains in southern Brazil. Central Brazil remains dry so far but has a chance for rain this coming weekend. Fundamentally, USDA expects ending corn supplies to increase by 166 mb in the new season, a small change that should keep corn prices well supported. Technically, the trend remains down for December corn, in line with the seasonal tendency. Cash basis continues to weaken with harvest picking up. DTN’s National Corn Index closed at $5.22 Friday evening, near the lowest price in seven months and priced 5 cents below the December futures contract. In outside markets, December Dow Jones futures are down 851 points and nearly all commodities are lower with bearish concerns related to Evergrande, described above. November natural gas is trading down 12.4 cents at $5.022.