The mostly bearish price action in row-crop futures on Friday was not unique just to agricultural products, with heavy selling seen across macroeconomic markets as well from equities to energies. In row crops, soybeans again led the way lower as bears remain in full control of momentum currently; although the market is becoming a touch oversold from a technical standpoint. Corn and wheat markets were lower as well with corn lower on the soybean weakness and wheat markets initially holding stubbornly to short gains were ultimately unable to trade against the overarching bearish tone to close the week. Looking at outside markets, essentially the only major indicator which was higher for Friday was the U.S. Dollar Index, snapping a streak of two lower days primarily due to higher Treasury yields.
WHEAT:
March Kansas City wheat futures fell on Friday to $5.18, down 4 1/4 cents. May futures were down 4 cents to $5.30 1/2. The KC wheat market has fallen in five of the past six sessions after being unable to hold to early gains on Friday. Meanwhile, Chicago prices were lower as well while MIAX Minneapolis wheat futures were higher. Looking at the March KC chart, prices posted their lowest close for the contract since the last week of October, while the close below mid-November lows sets October lows in the $5.05 to $5.10 area as the next bearish target for the market. The bullish target for now is downtrend resistance in the upper $5.20s up to the 100-day moving average near $5.33 1/2 currently.
Wheat market news for Friday was slim, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting on Thursday that wheat harvesting is 60% complete. For now, the agency kept their forecast for production unchanged at 25.5 mmt while the Rosario Exchange notably raised their estimate to a record shattering 27.7 mmt crop. Meanwhile, despite heightened world competition, U.S. export performance remains relatively strong, with commitments as of Nov. 13 (the most recent sales report) running 24% ahead of the same point in 2024.
Corn
March corn futures fell 5 3/4 cents on Friday, closing at $4.40 3/4. May futures were down 5 1/4 cents to $4.49. The corn market has alternated higher and lower closes in four straight sessions through the week, as traders are caught between strong demand and bullish seasonal tendencies for prices and the drastic falloff in soybean futures through the past week plus. The 50-day moving average is seen as firm medium-term support to March corn prices currently near $4.41 3/4, while the bullish objective remains $4.50.
Early Friday, USDA announced a flash sale of just under 10 million bushels (mb) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 marketing year. It was an overall bullish week for corn demand prospects, with USDA increasing their export forecast by 125 mb while the most recent weekly sales data (as of Nov. 13) showed commitments pace up 30% from the same point in 2024. Although trading volume will likely remain suppressed through the Holiday season, traders will eventually turn their attention to potential January production adjustments by USDA, with some thought that USDA may be overestimating the national average corn yield, although opinions are split in regard to this.
In world corn news, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the Argentine corn crop is just under 60% planted as of this week, as progress has accelerated on late planted corn. Of the corn planted, the agency reports the crop is in 86% good-to-excellent condition, a massive improvement from the same point in 2024. The crop certainly has record-setting potential with USDA forecasting the crop to total 53 million metric tons (mmt), and the previous record (according to USDA) stands at 55.5 mmt set in 2018-19.
