On-Feed Report Sees Big Nebraska Placements


While not exactly a perfect fit, the April 1 Cattle on Feed report just released tracks close enough to trade expectations to preclude any significant price reaction at the CME when live and feeder cattle trading resumes on Monday.

Granted, you need to do a little talking before conceding neutrality. The March placement total is somewhat larger than expected with big lots in Nebraska (up 13{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}) working to counter major reductions in Oklahoma (off 25{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}) and Texas (off 12{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}).

Yet if the placement total proved to beat expectations, the same can be said of March marketing. Out-movement turned out to be several points larger than the average trade guess, augmented both by one extra business day than 2011 and a 7{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0} increase in Nebraska marketing.

So if you take the placement and marketing numbers together, the overall supply picture looks pretty much as anticipated and probably incapable of accurately sponsoring an opening call for Monday morning futures.

With that said, the placement weight breakdown was not without interest: under 600 pounds, 290,000 head, up 3{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}; 600-699 pounds, 300,000 head, off 17{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}; 700-799 pounds, 500,000 head, off 15{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}; 800 pounds and up, 602,000 head, up 3{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0}.

Note that the placement of 8-weight feeders last month turned out to be the second largest for the month since the data series began in 1996 (i.e., surpassed by only 2003 when big lots placed 631,000 big yearlings in March of that year).

According the DTN placement model, big lots now have 2.05 million steers and heifers scheduled to finish in July, 1{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0} more than 2011 and 3{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0} greater than the 3-year average.

For more Harrington comments check out http//:www.feelofthemarket.com


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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp


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