by Katie Micik, DTN Markets Editor
WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA increased its forecast for U.S. soybean exports by 20 million bushels but ending stocks only declined 5 mb to 145 mb in Monday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
USDA dropped its domestic crush estimate by 10 mb and increased imports by 5 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio declined to 4.4{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30} from last month's 4.5{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}. The average farm price was pegged at $12.95, with a high of $13.70 and a low of $12.20.
Globally, USDA dropped its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1.5 million metric tons to 88.5 mmt while leaving Argentina's production unchanged at 54 mmt.
Global ending stocks declined by 2.37 mmt and the stocks-to-use ratio fell to 26.2{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30} from last month's 27.1{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}. Last year's global ratio was tighter, however, at 22.3{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}.
Both domestic and global ending stocks estimates were within the range of pre-report expectations.
CORN
USDA increased corn exports by 25 mb, which reduced ending stocks by a like amount. With ending stocks at 1.456 billion bushels, the stocks-to-use ratio declined slightly to 10.9{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}. Last year's ratio was 7.4{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}. USDA's ending stocks estimate fell within the range of pre-report expectations.
Brazil and Argentina's corn production estimates were left unchanged at 70 mmt and 24 mmt respectively.
Global ending stocks were increased 1.17 mmt due to increases in beginning stocks, production and imports that offset a 1.4 mmt increase in global feed usage. The stocks-to-use ratio increase by one tenth of a percentage point to 16.8{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}.
WHEAT
USDA didn't make any changes to the overall U.S. wheat supply and demand picture, leaving ending stocks at 558 mb with a stocks-to-use ratio at 22.7{75f28365482020b1dc6796c337e8ca3e58b9dd590dc88a265b514ff5f3f56c30}. USDA noted that a 15 mb increase in hard red spring wheat exports was offset by a similar decline in soft red winter wheat exports. Wheat ending stocks came in within the range of pre-report expectations.
Ukrainian unrest has been a wheat market force of late, but USDA made no changes to its forecast for Ukraine's production (22.28 mmt), exports (10 mmt) or ending stocks (3.06 mmt).
USDA did make a few revisions to Russia's balance sheet. USDA left production unchanged at 52.07 mmt, but increased exports by 1 mmt, arguing Russia will import more wheat and feeds less, freeing up some domestically grown wheat for export.
USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports at 11 a.m. on Monday, March 31.
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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp
