USDA Crop Reports Bearish for U.S. Corn, Wheat and Soybean Markets


WASHINGTON (DTN) — Driven by another boost in Brazilian soybean production, USDA raised global soybean production for 2016-17 by 5.18 million metric tons and boosted global soybean ending stocks by 4.59 million metrics as well.

USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released Tuesday also bumped up U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2016-17 by 10 million bushels to 445 million bushels.

While boosting global production and ending stocks for soybeans, corn and wheat, USDA held pat on domestic corn ending stocks for 2016-17 while slightly bumping up domestic wheat stocks.

Tuesday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were slightly bearish for corn and bearish for soybeans and wheat, he said.

Crop Production:…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):…


Due to higher planted acreage, USDA bumped up domestic seed use by 9 million bushels to 104 million bushels, but exports and domestic crushing were unchanged. USDA lowered domestic soybean use by 10 million bushels as well, increasing the ending stocks to 445 million bushels.

The season average soybean price was lowered 5 cents a bushel to $9.55 a bushel.

Globally, USDA increased Brazil's soybean production by 3 million metric tons to 111 million metric tons, near the high of the pre-report analyst estimates and above estimates by the Brazil's government agricultural agency Conab. USDA also increased Argentina soybean production by 500,000 metric tons to 56 million metric tons, which was pegged by the average analysts' estimates.

Still, the overall 5.18 million metric ton bump in global soybean production translated into 87.4 million metric tons of ending stocks for the 2016-17 crop. That comes in well above the pre-report estimated high.


USDA raised domestic ethanol use by 50 million bushels, but that usage was offset by another 50 million reduction in feed and residual use. That left overall usage and ending stocks as the same forecast as last month.

The average farm gate price for corn remained the same at $3.40 a bushel, but USDA narrowed the range to $3.25 to $3.55 a bushel.

Global corn production was raised 4.52 million metric tons, driven by a larger projected second crop in Brazil and also increased production in Argentina due to higher-than-expected yields.

Global ending stocks for corn were also bumped up by 2.30 million metric tons to just under 223 million metric tons.


U.S. ending stocks for wheat were raised 30 million bushels to 1.159 billion bushels, a near-30-year high. Feed and residual use for wheat was dropped by 35 million bushels to 190 million, based on lower-than-expected usage.

Global ending stocks for 2016-17 were raised 2.32 million metric tons to 252.3 million metric tons due to declines in global feed use, imports and overall consumption.

The U.S. farm gate price remained at an average of $3.85 a bushel.


Source: DTN

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