USDA Plantings Report Slightly Bearish Wheat


USDA’s prospective plantings report shows farmers intend to plant 245 million acres of the five major crops, up from 236 million last year, and above USDA’s estimate in its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, which was greeted with skepticism at the time.

The estimate of 92.18 million acres of corn eases supply concerns modestly compared with the pre-report estimate of 91.84. USDA’s soybean acreage, at 76.61 million, is within the pre-report trade estimates but slightly below average expectations.

Corn and bean stocks were below expectations; slightly more wheat and sorghum on hand than the trade was looking for.

For Prospective Plantings:

For Quarterly Grain Stocks:


USDA’s prospective corn plantings are modestly above pre-report expectations, which averaged 91.84. This could slightly ease supply concerns. But in order for ending stocks to use to gain in 2011-12, corn plantings would need to total an ambitious 93.4 million acres, according to DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom

Farmers told USDA they plan to plant 76.61 million acres of soybeans. This is below the average pre-report estimate of 76.9 million and also below last year’s actual planted acres of 77.4 million.

At 58.02 million acres, all wheat also is higher than the expected average of 57.3 million. Winter is pegged at 41.2; spring at 14.4 and durum at 2.4. Today’s intentions report can’t account for changes in spring wheat reductions due to flooding, which eventually may lead to a decrease in acres compared with the 13.7 million planted in 2010, according to Newsom.

Cotton acres, at 12.57 million, are up 15 percent from 10.97 million last year, but are surprisingly low given average trade expectations of 13.15 and a low projection of 12.97.


Pre-report estimates for corn stocks on hand at the end of February averaged 6.69 billion bushels, suggesting usage well above the five-year average pace for the second quarter.

The actual number came in at 6.52 billion, indicating December-February disappearance of 3.53 billion, up from 3.21 billion during the same period last year. This was even stronger use than expected on average, though at the exact lower end of the pre-report estimate range.

Soybean quarterly stocks were expected to come in at 1.299 billion bushels, representing second-quarter usage as a percent of supplies near the five-year average.

Soybean stocks were announced at 1.249, slightly below average expectations and below the 1.266 lowest projection. It represents disappearance of 1.03 billion bushels, a 4 percent decrease in usage compared with the same period a year ago.

The average pre-report estimate for all wheat ending stocks was 1.399 billion bushels, slightly above the 5-year average usage pace at this stage of the marketing year.

With wheat stocks pegged at 1.425 billion bushels, they are slightly above average expectations but within the pre-report range. The disappearance of 508 million bushels is up 20 percent from the same period a year earlier.


© Copyright 2011 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.

Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp


Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x