USDA increased the 2025-26 corn production by more than 1 billion bushels (bb) in the report, moving from 15.705 billion bushels to 16.742 bb. For comparison, record production was 15.34 bb in the 2023-24 crop.
Planted acres for corn were also increased 2.1 million acres (ma) to 97.3 ma. Harvested acres are projected at 88.7 ma, up from 86.8 ma in July.
On the demand side, total feed and residual use is projected at 6.1 bb, up 250 million bushels (mb) from July.
Ethanol use is pegged at 5.6 bb, up 100 mb. Total domestic use is forecast at 13.08 bb, up 345 mb from July.
Corn exports for the new crop are projected at 2.875 bb, up 200 mb from last month.
Ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop now are projected at 2.117 bb, a jump of 457 mb from last month. If that holds, the ending stocks would be the highest in seven years.
The farmgate price for the 2025-26 crop was lowered 30 cents to $3.90 a bushel.
With old-crop domestic corn, USDA also lowered ending stocks 35 mb to 1.305 bb, which did lower the carryover. Old-crop exports were increased 70 mb to 2.820 bb.
The farmgate price for 2024-25 remained at $4.30 a bushel.
Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop at 283.11 million metric tons, down 1.17 mmt from July. Production is forecast at 1,288.58 mmt, up 24.92 mmt from last month. Exports globally are projected at 200.86. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop at 282.54 mmt, up 10.46 mmt from July.
For the 2024-25 crop, Brazil’s production was forecast 132 mmt while exports were held pat at 43 mmt. Argentina’s production was maintained at 50 mmt and exports were 34.5 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA decreased its estimate of U.S. wheat production to 1.927 billion bushels, compared to 1.929 bb in the July report.
USDA estimates ending stocks for 2025-26 wheat at 869 million bushels, a decrease from 890 mb in July.
Wheat farmgate prices were pegged at $5.30 per bushel, down from $5.40 in July.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, up 1% from the July 1 forecast and up less than 1% from 2024. As of Aug. 1, the United States yield is forecast at 54.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year’s average yield of 51.7 bushels per acre.
Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.7 million acres, down less than 1% from the Acreage report and down 5% from 2024.
Hard red winter production, at 769 million bushels, is up 2% from last month. Soft red winter, at 339 million bushels, is up 1% from the July forecast. White winter, at 247 million bushels, is down 3% from last month. Of the white winter production, 20.5 million bushels are hard white, and 226 million bushels are soft white.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 87.4 million bushels, up 10% from the previous forecast and up 9% from 2024. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.9 bushels per harvested acre, up 2.2 bushels from the previous forecast and up 1.6 bushels from 2024.
A record-high yield is forecast for North Dakota. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 2.14 million acres, up 4% from the Acreage report and up 5% 2024.
Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 484 million bushels, down 4% from the previous forecast and down 11% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 50.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.7 bushels from the previous forecast and down 2.5 bushels from 2024.
Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.69 million acres, down 1% from the Acreage report and down 6% from 2024. Of the total production, 449 million bushels are hard red spring wheat, down 4% from the July forecast.
Globally, USDA estimates wheat production at 806.9 million metric tons in August, a decrease from 808.55 mmt in July.
USDA estimates European Union production at 138.25 mmt, an increase from 137.25 mmt last month. Russian production was left unchanged at 83.5 mmt in July. Chinese production is decreased to 140 mmt compared to 142 mmt last month.
USDA estimates wheat world ending stocks at 260.08 mmt, decreased from 261.52 mmt in July.
European Union ending stocks are unchanged at 12.61 mmt, as were Russian ending stocks at 9.39 mmt.
Total global wheat exports were estimated at 213.53 mmt in August, compared to 213.06 mmt in July. Russian exports were left unchanged at 46 mmt.
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DTN – 2025
