USDA Raises World Wheat Ending Stocks


The 2010 U.S. corn crop won’t be quite as big as previously thought, and ending corn stocks will be tighter, according to USDA’s monthly crop production and supply and demand reports released early Friday.

Cuts were a little deeper than many analysts had expected, so the report may be called neutral to bullish for corn when trade resumes later this morning.

In the soybeans, USDA raised its production estimate by 50 million bushels from August, to 3.483 billion bushels, with yield increased .7 bushels per acre to 44.7 bpa. Both those numbers were near the high end of trade guesses, so the report may be called neutral to bearish for soybeans.

USDA now projects 2010 corn production at 13.160 billion bushels, on yields averaging 162.5 bushels per acre, down from 13.4 b bu and 165.0 bpa in the August report. Forecasted yields decreased from last month throughout much of the Corn Belt, Tennessee Valley and Delta, while yields were up from August in the lower portions of the Southeast.

USDA lowered ending 2010/11 corn stocks 106 million bushels from last month, to 1.1 billion bushels, the lowest since 2003/04, and stocks as a percent of total use would be the lowest since 1995/96. USDA raised its forecast of season-average farm price to range between $4.00 to $4.80, up from $3.50 to $4.10 last month.

Soybean yields are forecast higher or unchanged across the central and northern Corn Belt, with the exception of Michigan, USDA said, and the forecasted yields in Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York and North Dakota would be record highs.

Soybean yields are forecast lower across the Delta, Southern Plains, and with the exception of Louisiana and the Carolinas, the Southeast.

Projections for both corn and soybean production remain above 2009, and would be record highs for both crops.

In its world supply and demand tables, USDA raised world ending wheat stocks for 2010/11, as the economists at the World Agricultural Outlook Board cut estimates for world wheat consumption, more than offsetting a further reduction in world output, down to 643 million metric tons. Ahead of the report, analysts had expected world wheat production around 640 MMT, so the world wheat numbers could be called neutral to bearish.

U.S. Supply and Demand Revisions

In its monthly supply and demand tables, USDA took 2010/11 corn ending stocks down to 1.116 billion bushels, on a decrease in production and feed and residual use and an increase in exports.

The department cut 2010/11 soybean ending stocks by 10 million bushels from the August estimate, as increases exports of both old and new crop offset the increase in production.

The biggest change in the wheat balance sheet was in exports, which USDA raised by 50 m bu from the August estimates, resulting in the same size cut in ending stocks.

World Supply and Demand Revisions

USDA once again cut estimates of wheat production in the drought-afflicted areas of eastern Europe, taking Russian production down 2.5 m bu and production in the EU-276 down 2.4 MMT. USDA raised exports for Canada by 2 MMT and by 1.4 MMT for the U.S., more than offsetting reductions for EU-27 and Australia. Global ending stocks are projected 2 MMT higher, with increases in production in EU-27, Canada and Australia.

Another number of interest in recent weeks has been total coarse grain stocks (corn, sorghum, barley, oats and other small grains). This month, USDA lowered world coarse grains 2010/11 ending stocks to 166.76 MMT.

For corn, USDA lowered world ending corn stocks to 135.56 MMT from 139.2 MMT last month.

For Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

For Crop Production:


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Posted with DTN permission by Haylie Shipp


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