USDA Reports Called Bullish


WASHINGTON (DTN) — USDA increased planted and harvested corn acreage in the Crop Production report released Thursday morning, resulting in a net gain of 300,000 acres of corn production. Yield was pegged at 122 bushels per acre, a 0.8 bushel drop from last month, and total production was pegged at 10.7 billion bushels.

USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Thursday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)Soybean acreage was increased by 1.1 million planted and harvested acres and the yield projection was bumped up to 37.8 bpa from September's 35.3 bpa. Total production was pegged 2.86 bb, a 15 million bushel increase from September.

Grain sorghum production estimates increased 6 million bushels over last month's estimate, with USDA projecting 252 mb of production with an average yield of 50.2 bpa, which is 4.4 bpa less than last year's average yield.

USDA updated acreage estimates using certified Farm Services Agency data. The updated production estimates for corn and soybeans were within the range of trade expectation.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link:

Crop Production report link:


Corn: Using the September quarterly grain stocks numbers and updated acreage and production estimates, the U.S. ending stocks-to-use ratio came in at 5.6{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. That's almost a 1 percentage point decrease from last month, but it remains above the 5{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05} level seen in the 1995-96 crop year. Ending stocks declined to 619 mb. USDA cut export projections by 100 mb.

Globally, corn carryout shrunk 6.68 million metric tons to 117.27 million metric tons, and the global stocks-to-use estimate declined by 0.8 percentage points to 13.7{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. USDA left Brazil and Argentina production unchanged at 70 mmt and 28 mmt respectively.

Soybeans: Domestic soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 130 mb, putting the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.5{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}, a slight increase from last month. U.S. exports were projected to increase by 210 mb while crush estimates increased 40 mb.

Global carryout estimates also grew, increasing to 57.56 mmt from last month's 53.10 mmt estimate. The global stocks to use ratio is 22.2{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. USDA also made a few tweaks to 2011-12 ending stocks, increasing them by 1.14 mmt, with most of the increase coming from a 1 mmt upward revision in Brazil's soybean production. Brazil is now pegged to have produced 66.5 mmt of soybeans last year. USDA didn't change Brazil or Argentina's production estimates for 2012-13, leaving them at 81 mmt and 55 mmt respectively.

Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks declined by 44 mb to 654 mb. USDA increased the wheat feeding estimate by 95 mb while cutting exports by 50 mb. The stocks-to-use ratio came in at 26.3{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}, a decline from last month's 28.6{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05} ratio.

Globally, wheat carryout declined by 3.7 mmt to 173 mmt. Global stocks-to-use is 25.5{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. USDA made a 3 mmt cut to Australia's production as a drought has limited yield potential in some of its highest yielding areas. Canada's production was trimmed slightly from 27 mmt to 26.7 mmt.


The U.S. supply and demand report is bullish for corn, according to DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. “Ending stocks for 2012-13 are expected to fall to 619 mb, the smallest since 1995-96 with ending stocks to use pegged at 5.6{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. Soybeans could be viewed as neutral to bearish, though the ending stocks number of 130 was slightly below the pre-report average of 134 mb. Wheat ending stocks of 654 mb should be viewed as neutral.”

In general, the world numbers should be viewed as bullish for corn and wheat, Newsom said. “World corn ending stocks fell more than 6 mmt to 117.3 mmt, putting ending stocks to use at 13.7{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}, closing in on the 1973-74 level of 12.1{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. Soybean ending stocks increased about 6 mmt, reflecting the larger U.S. crop, while South American production was left unchanged. Beginning stocks were also increased 1 mmt. Wheat ending stocks fell 3.7 mmt, due in large part to a 3 mmt decrease in Australian production.”

Source: DTN

Posted by Northern Ag Network

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