U.S. & World Wheat Ending Stocks Slashed


WASHINGTON (DTN) — U.S. soybeans stocks-to-use ratio dropped to 4.3{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0} for the new crop year but old-corn ending stocks remained unchanged in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) link: http://www.usda.gov/

Crop Production report link: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/

2011-2012 U.S. ENDING STOCKS

Corn: Ending stocks for corn remained unchanged in June at 851 million bushels despite trade expectations stocks would decrease slightly from May. USDA bumped corn use for ethanol by 50 million bushels for the marketing year, but then also offset corn exports with a 50 mb decline. Tight domestic supplies and increased competition, particularly from Brazil, are also expected to reduce U.S. export prospects for corn during the summer, the WASDE report states. While keeping ending stocks the same, USDA also kept the average price for corn unchanged for the year with a range from $5.95 to $6.25 a bushel.

Soybeans: Higher export demand trimmed ending stocks for soybeans to 175 million bushels, down 35 mb from May. The WASDE soybean stock projection actually came in 22 mb lower than the overall trade estimate. WASDE raised soybean export expectations by 20 mb to 1.334 billion bushels, reflecting increased global import demand, led mainly by higher projected imports for China. Soybean crush was also raised 15 mb due to strong domestic meal demand. Soybean stocks-to-use ratio for old-crop soybeans is 5.6{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0} but will drop to 4.3{fd15d42d1b024b97d6d50958be27cc8145b6addb99e015780abccf2984117bb0} for the new crop.

Wheat: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were lowered by 40 million bushels, which is 29 mb lower than the average trade estimates. Along with lower stocks, WASDE also projected a 10 mb increase in food use and a 30 mb increase in exports for 2011-12. The increase in food use stems from higher milling reports earlier this year from the North American Millers’ Association.

Overall, WASDE projected all U.S. wheat production at 2.234 billion bushels, down 10 mb with lower forecast winter wheat production.

2012-2013 U.S. ENDING STOCKS:

Corn: The WASDE report did not change U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012-13 from the May report, sticking at 1.881 billion bushels. The range estimate for was wide, but overall had projected a 140-million-bushel dip.

Soybeans: New-crop ending stocks were expected to increase slightly in the June report, but that didn’t happen. WASDE lowered projected new-crop ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 140 mb. The pre-report estimates had pegged the number at 147 mb. With reduced supplies, soybean exports for 2012-13 are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down about 20 mb from earlier projections.

Wheat: Ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 694 million bushels, down 41 mb from the May estimate. This too is lower than pre-report estimates which had only pegged a 7 million bushel dip from the May numbers. Large production declines are expected in hard-red winter wheat states such as Nebraska and Colorado. With reduced supplies and expected higher prices, feed residual use is lowered by 10 million bushels.

The U.S. ending stocks numbers should be viewed as bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom.

“Corn ending stocks for both 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 came in well above pre-report expectations while soybeans and wheat were below,” Newsom said. “The 1.881 bb in corn for 2012-2013 was left unchanged from May.”


Corn: World corn ending stocks for 2011-2012 were increased slightly to 129.19 million metric tons from the 127.56 from mmt reported in May. WASDE also increased the 2012-13 word corn stocks to 155.74 mmt, up from May numbers by 3.4 mmt.

“Global numbers were bearish for corn with increases seen in both 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 ending stocks,” Newsom said.

Soybeans: World, old-crop soybean ending stocks were up slightly at 53.36 million metric tons despite cutting Argentina’s production by 1 million metric tons from last month’s estimate.

Wheat: Old-crop wheat were lowered by 1.44 million metric tons from May figures to 195.56 mmt for June. New crop wheat ending stocks were also lowered by 2.37 million metric tons to 185.76 mmt. New crop decreases primarily came from former Soviet Union countries, including Russia.

“Soybeans are slightly bearish with modest gains seen while wheat could be viewed as bullish,” Newsom said.


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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp


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