USDA Raises U.S. & World Wheat Stocks


USDA Reports Summary

Linda H. Smith, DTN Markets Editor

In its March supply-demand estimates today, USDA tweaked a few usage numbers for the 2010-11 marketing year, but corn and soybean ending stocks remained unchanged. All ending stocks estimates were within the trade range, though wheat and corn were above the average expectation.

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U.S. Supply-Demand


In the U.S. tables, USDA’s World Ag Outlook Board shows March numbers unchanged from February, with ending stocks still 675 million bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio is still 5.0. It narrowed the price range to $5.15 to $5.65 versus $5.05 to $5.75, but this kept the national average cash price at $5.30.


USDA left soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, with stocks-to-use at 4.2. At $11.60, the national average cash price is down 10 cents.


In its wheat supply and demand table, USDA raised 2010-11 ending stocks by 25 million bushels, to 843 mb, slightly above the average guess at 810 mb and above the February forecast of 818. The increase is the result of a 25-mb cut in exports. At $5.70, USDA kept its national average cash price the same as its February estimate.

Market reaction to U.S. ending stocks numbers should be neutral to bearish Thursday with both corn and soybeans estimates unchanged from February, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom.


In its world tables, USDA made only minor changes to corn and soybeans, but wheat stocks rose 2 percent, to 181.9 million metric tons.

World corn ending stocks rose marginally, from 122.51 mmt in February to 123.14 mmt, slightly above trade expectations.

World soybean ending stocks were pegged at 58.33 mmt, up marginally from 58.21 mmt. But this is slightly under the trade average expectation of 59.19 mmt. Brazil’s crop was bumped up to 70.0 from 68.5 in February, while Argentina’s was left unchanged at 49.5.

In the world wheat supply and demand table, USDA boosted ending stocks to 181.9 mmt, from 177.77 mmt in the February report. Australian production was up 1 mmt from February, at 26 mmt. Canadian wheat was unchanged at 23.2 mmt.

Global ending stocks should be viewed as neutral to bearish, Newsom said, with the increases seen in corn and wheat.

Eyes turn next to USDA’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports, March 31. The next WASDE report will be April 8.

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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp

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