The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released several crop reports today that impacted the markets in positive and negative ways. The biggest report that fanned the flame of wheat traders’ concerns was the Crop Production report. The monthly publication predicts U.S. winter wheat will be 2 percent higher from 2024 figures and was based on a yield increase of 2 bushels an acre (bpa) at 53.7 bpa.
Wheat
Overall, winter wheat production this year is expected to be 1.38 billion bushels (bb) with Hard Red Winter wheat production expected to be 784 million bushels (mb), up 2 percent from last year. Soft Red Winter wheat is also expected to be up 1 percent year-over-year to 345 mb and White Winter wheat could see a 7 percent rise from last year at 253 mb. Of the White Winter wheat production, 20.6 mb are Hard White and 232 mb are Soft White.
In addition, the latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report added to the bearish news. U.S. exports are projected lower at 800 million bushels as the United States is expected to face strong competition from most major exporters in 2025/26. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are 10 percent above last year at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years.
The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, increased consumption and trade, and slightly higher stocks. Supplies are projected to rise 4.9 million tons to 1.07 billion tons with production projected at a record 808.5 million tons, more than offsetting lower carry-in stocks. Increased output for the EU, India, the United Kingdom, China, Argentina, Russia, and Canada is expected to more than offset reductions for Kazakhstan, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States.
Corn
Record production was also noted in some of the coarse grains as USDA forecasts new-crop corn at 15.82 bb based on a yield forecast of 181 bpa with both estimates coming in at the pre-report averages by analysts.
On the demand side, the early forecast for the 2025-26 corn crop projects total feed and residual use at 5.9 billion bushels. Ethanol use is pegged at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.785 bb. Corn exports for the new crop are also projected at 2.67 bb.
Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop at 287.29 million metric tons (mmt). Production is forecast at 1,264.98 mmt. Exports globally are projected at 195.81 mmt. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop at 277.84 mmt.
Soybeans
USDA pegged new-crop soybean production at 4.34 billion bushels using a 52.5 bpa national average yield, 83.5 million planted acres and 82.7 million harvested acres.
For the 2025-26 season, the agency uses a beginning stocks estimate of 350 mb and imports of 20 mb for total supplies of 4.71 bb. Crush is forecast at 2.49 bb, exports at 1.815 bb, seed at 73 mb, residual at 37 mb. With total usage at 4.415 bb, ending stocks are forecast at 295 mb.
In its first estimates for the new-crop season, USDA pegs global ending stocks at 124.33 million metric tons. Global production is forecast at 426.82 mmt, with Brazil’s crop forecast at 175 mmt and Argentina’s at 48.5 mmt. China’s import demand is forecast at 112 mmt, up 4 mmt from 2024-25.
Monday’s U.S. ending stocks estimates were slightly bullish for corn, bullish for soybeans, and slightly bearish for wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. Monday’s world ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for corn, neutral for soybeans and bearish for wheat.
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Northern Ag Network, DTN, USDA – 2025
