500,00 More Corn Acres Expected in N. Dakota


by Katie Micik, DTN Markets Editor


OMAHA (DTN) — Informa Economics is calling for corn to be planted on 99 million acres next year, while soybeans will be planted on nearly 79 million acres, according to its December acreage estimate released Wednesday. Informa lowered its estimate of winter wheat seedings from last month, and now estimates 42.2 million winter wheat acres.


The aggregate crop area is relatively unchanged, and Informa noted that “survey indications suggested a stronger desire to plant corn and cotton than previously indicated by Informa's analysts of relative crop economics.”


Informa's production projections are 14.8 billion bushels for corn, 3.4 bb for soybeans and 15.0 million bales for all cotton. Hard red winter wheat production was pegged at 947 million bushels while soft red wheat production was forecast at 468 mb.




Informa's December corn estimate is 1.3 million acres higher than November and 2.1 million acres above last year's production. Eastern Corn Belt acreage is expected to grow 200,000 acres over last year to 30.1 million acres, while Western Corn Belt states expect to plant 1.3 million acres more than last year.


The largest increase in the Western Corn Belt was a 500,000 acreage addition in North Dakota. Outside of the Corn Belt, Informa sees 300,000 additional acres (vs. November's estimate) in the MidSouth. Those acres came mostly from soybean production.


DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom noted that Informa's acreage increase pulls from states that aren't normally considered the heart of the Corn Belt.


“For example Georgia is expected to see a 30{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05} increase planted area, North Dakota 19{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}, Arizona 14{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05} and Texas 11{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05}. Of the major growing states, Nebraska and Indiana are expected to see 2{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05} increases,” he said.


“Yet, Informa is projecting average yield to spike back to near trendline at 161.8 bpa, putting total production at 14.833 bb. This seems unlikely given the expansion of corn plantings into less than optimal growing areas,” Newsom said.




Soybean acreage, which was trimmed 1.2 million acres from Informa's November estimate, is still larger than last year at 79 ma. Planting prospects were cut 870,000 acres in the Corn Belt. Newsom notes that “most of the growth is again expected to be seen in the Southeast region while the Midwest remains largely unchanged. Yield is expected to climb to 43.8 bpa, not unrealistic given recent history.”




Informa's estimates peg winter wheat acreage at 42.2 million acres, a 2.1{8a1275384cb93b18aa3d41af404144e37302a793dec468d70d54c97b65cfac05} increase from last year, with gains seen in Texas and Oklahoma.


“The estimated average yield of 46.7 bpa may be a bit high given the record low crop condition numbers registered in late fall,” Newsom said.




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Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp



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