The USDA will release its June supply and demand report on Thursday. Before the report, Allendale, Inc. has the following forecast:
Corn – Stronger ethanol and feed use are expected to overshadow lower exports. (New Crop) Allendale looks for corn yield of 157.7 bu/acre. That is down a conservative 1.0 from USDA’s May estimate. China corn production is estimated higher than May USDA at 174 million tonnes.
Soybeans – Crush is running lower than USDA expects. (New Crop) Soybean yield is seen unchanged from USDA’s May estimate at 43.4 bu/acre. 2011/12 Brazil production is increased by 0.5 million tonnes vs. USDA.
Wheat – Export sales have been better than USDA hopes. (New Crop) Nationwide yield is lowered 0.4 bushels from USDA May estimate to 42.2 bu/acre. Lower production estimates were also made for the EU (136 million tonnes) and Canada (25 mt).
U.S. Ending Stocks (in million bushels)
2010/11 Corn (USDA): 730
2010/11 Corn (Allendale): 708
2010/11 Beans (USDA): 170
2010/11 Beans (Allendale): 185
2010/11 Wheat (USDA): 839
2010/11 Wheat (Allendale): 834
2011/12 Corn (USDA): 900
2011/12 Corn (Allendale): 848
2011/12 Beans (USDA): 160
2011/12 Beans (Allendale): 186
2011/12 Wheat (USDA): 702
2011/12 Wheat (Allendale): 722
World Ending Stocks (in million metric tonnes)
2010/11 Corn (USDA): 122.19
2010/11 Corn (Allendale): 121.88
2010/11 Beans (USDA): 63.81
2010/11 Beans (Allendale): 63.99
2010/11 Wheat (USDA): 182.20
2010/11 Wheat (Allendale): 182.22
2011/12 Corn (USDA): 129.14
2011/12 Corn (Allendale): 129.89
2011/12 Beans (USDA): 61.85
2011/12 Beans (Allendale): 62.55
2011/12 Wheat (USDA): 181.26
2011/12 Wheat (Allendale): 179.32
Commodity trading is risky. Allendale, Inc. assumes no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples.
Source: Allendale, Inc.
Posted by Haylie Shipp