U.S. net farm income is now forecast at $92.5 billion for 2019, up $8.5 billion (10.2%) from the 2018 level, according to USDA’s November 2019 Farm Income Forecast.
In inflation-adjusted terms, net farm income is seen up $7 billion, down 32.3% from $136.6 billion in 2013.
In August, USDA forecast net farm income at $88 billion.
Net cash farm income is seen at $119 billion, a rise of $15.5 billion (15%) from 2018, and up from the August forecast of $112.6 billion.
Feeding the increase is a rise in cash receipts for all commodities of $2.2 billion, reaching $374.2 billion for 2019. With total animal/animal product receipts basically unchanged, there is a $1.9 billion rise forecast for total crop receipts compared with 2018.
Key in the improved farm income forecast figures? Direct government farm payments are forecast to increase $8.8 billion (64%) to $22.4 billion in 2019, USDA said, “with the increase due to higher anticipated payments from the Market Facilitation Program” (MFP 2). USDA in August said those direct government payments were to be $19.5 billion, an increase of $5.8 billion from 2018.
Also, disaster aid payments from USDA were sharply higher in 2019 due to a variety of challenges all year long from mother nature. Bitter cold and the bomb cyclone in March gave way to widespread flooding. Of course early snowstorms across the country caused a lot of harvest issues as well.
The 2019 forecast includes payments from the MFP program first implemented in 2018 but received by producers in calendar year 2019, plus the expected payments from the first and second tranches of the program announced in 2019. “We assume producers will receive 75% of the announced 2019 payment total of $14.5 billion,” USDA stated.”