Saturday, February 24, 2024

What Weather Factors are Affecting the Markets?

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by Bryce Anderson, DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst

OMAHA (DTN) — A cooler and drier trend in the Midwest, mostly favorable Southern Plains conditions, a chilly period ahead in the Northern Plains, an uncertain shower chance for the Southeast, a wetter trend in the Canadian Prairies, continued dry conditions in Ukraine through Kazakhstan, and a dry trend in northern China are the main weather items for the commodity trade’s attention Tuesday.

COOLER AND DRIER MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a cooler and drier Midwest trend to favor improved planting during the balance of this week and this weekend. Cool weather should slow development of recently-planted crops, but it does not look cold enough to harm emerged corn or far enough to the south to harm heading wheat. The pattern still does bear watching, however.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains winter wheat will continue to benefit from adequate soil moisture and no significant cold or hot weather during the extended range period. A drier trend may also diminish the risk for quality problems but this is a little more uncertain.

CHILLY PERIOD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a somewhat drier trend, at least for awhile, will favor a continued ahead of normal planting pace. Frost and a light freeze may affect emerged corn early this week and then again late in the week.

UNCERTAIN SHOWER CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST

In the southeast U.S., a weakening upper-level high pressure ridge this area may lead to better rains; however, so far the showers have failed to end the drought over the south Georgia area.

WETTER TREND FOR PRAIRIES

Recent rains in the Canadian Prairies have led to adequate to surplus soil moisture in the region. This may delay seeding spring wheat and canola but the moisture was needed. The weather looks to be somewhat drier during the balance of this week and early next week, improving conditions for seeding the crop.

CONTINUED DRY OVER UKRAINE

There appears to be some tendency for upper level ridging to occur from east Ukraine and south Russia through the Volga river valley and into the western Kazakhstan area. This likely means a below-normal rainfall pattern and an above-normal temperature pattern. This favors spring planting while reducing soil moisture for winter crops and earlier-planted spring and summer crops. The high temperatures Monday ranged from the upper 70s to the middle 80s F (25 to 30 C). A weak trough is in the area Tuesday that may cause a few light showers in the South Russia region.

DRY PATTERN IN NORTHERN CHINA

Northern China had mainly dry conditions Monday through key corn and soybean areas of Manchuria and the North China Plain. Rain has redeveloped through the Yangtze River valley. The outlook suggests a chance for showers in the area this coming weekend but until then a drier and warm to hot pattern will continue. This favors spring planting while soil moisture supplied by prior rains should favor winter wheat.

 

© Copyright 2012 DTN/The Progressive Farmer, A Telvent Brand. All rights reserved.

Posted with DTN Permission by Haylie Shipp

 

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